As of August 6th, a report from Safras & Mercado stated the Brazilian coffee harvest is 92% complete. In the areas we work, the harvest peaked in July and is still ongoing. This early start and accelerated pace have been fueled by extended periods of reduced rainfall and higher-than-average temperatures since late 2023.

While most areas report a faster harvest pace than last year, we’ve observed some regional differences within our supply chains. Specifically, we’ve seen that certain sub-regions of Sul de Minas and Mantiqueira de Minas have a slightly slower harvest pace and later peak, compared to the reported averages, due predominantly to their higher altitudes. 

Climatic challenges & cherry maturation

Something I observed throughout my trip was more uneven cherry maturation, which has been a challenge for producers caused mostly by weather changes—with many mentioning ‘El Niño’. The three main flowering periods were more spread out than usual, and though secured, caused issues with uniformity across all regions.

Whilst we work with some producers who are incentivised to selectively hand-pick their cherries, there are some limitations to picking In Brazil. Selective harvesting typically involves passing over the trees 2 to 3 times, which captures the full range of quality. The first pass collects the highest quality cherry (or ‘cereza’), the second is less uniform including some overripes, referred to as ‘passa’ or raisin, while the final pass gathers the sweepings. However, due to non-uniform maturation, there’s no ideal time to harvest, resulting in a lower volume of perfectly ripe cherries and making the harvesting process more difficult. Some producers are experiencing higher volumes of under ripe cherries, and in some cases, cherries are maturing too quickly, skipping stages and leading to an increase in dried pod floaters (or ‘boia’).  

As a result, many producers are opting to process fewer fermentation lots or to reduce the level of fermentation to mitigate risk. Our partners have mentioned using shorter, gentler fermentation to subtly enhance the fruit profile rather than relying on more intensive methods.

Screen size differences

Almost all of our partners and producers have mentioned screen size during this season. Whilst we still don’t know exactly how yield will be affected, we have seen first hand the reduced screen sizes and concentration around SC 14/15.

A positive take away from the regional data I reviewed from Lambari—where we have some of our longest-standing partnerships—is that the percentage of low-grade coffee (in bica corrida) increased by less than 1%. While the amount of SC 17/18 nearly halved, we are optimistic about the cup quality; based on our first visit and early samples, we see the overall average cup quality seems to be holding up, even though the composition of screen size has shifted a little.

In response to climate and harvest difficulties, the market has become particularly challenging. As the market rises, the incentive for producers to sort cherries is drastically reduced, especially smallholders without hydraulic separators. This is a very labour-intensive process that no longer guarantees a worthwhile return.

For roasters, this means fewer anaerobic and extended fermentation naturals will be available.  Anticipating this challenge before the harvest, we connected with key producers ahead of the season to explore options for securing our planned volumes of these coffee types. While we will have some of these lots, they are likely to move fast with a higher price. For similar reasons, there will also be less pulped natural available in the market—but this will not affect Nordic Approach.

While this might sound like new territory or something to worry about, it’s not!

Historically, and in particular with our partner Jaguara Coffee, we have sought to utilise as much of the coffee as possible—in a bid to add value for the producer and create a desirable price-to-quality ratio for our roasters. This means we have experience working with SC 13+ (and peaberry) and maintaining the cup profile and qualities you know and love. So for us, this year is not so different in principle. We still treat these grades in relativist terms, understanding the screen size in relation to the variety and what’s expected. 

Many concerns in the industry stem from conventional coffee focused on meeting screen size specified in forward contracts. Screen 17/18 is sought after in high commercial and specialty, recognised as having good physical quality due to its size.

Our focus however is on creating value for producers (and roasters) and utilising screen size, while maintaining distinct flavour profiles. Additionally, all of our coffees are being processed through density tables and colour sorters. The density tables remove ‘lightweight’/lower density coffee, while the colour sorters should catch yellow/white immature beans. With the infrastructure Brazilian exporters have in place, we’re confident they can overcome these challenges.

Some highlights

Some of the early highlights from my trip were [BR-24-0014] Sítio Pico do Mirante #1, all the coffees I’ve tasted from Monte Alto in Guaxupé, and perhaps the best are yet to come from Natalia and Andre at Jaguara Farm, some exciting variety separations and super interesting profiles. 

The big non-coffee highlights were the farm lunches, daily servings of picanha with amazing salads, desserts like Pudim de Nozes (walnut pudding)—so good I got the recipe for home!

Price expectations moving forward

Given the current market climb and current outlook, we anticipate that prices in Brazil will stay slightly elevated compared to previous seasons, with this trend likely continuing into 2025. Prices will continue to be supported by concerns on climate, not just in Brazil.

It’s hard to give a true sense of what this means to specialty coffee or to Nordic Approach specifically, but what we do know is that as the incentive for producers to meet the endless quality demands of specialty coffee are no longer sufficient. We will need to pay more to incentivise this level of work and attention to detail. The relationships with producers, which deepen every year, are also more important than ever, and our entire supply chain will continue to be quality focused actors. The last pieces of the puzzle are planning with roasters, our value lies in our expertise and the ways in which we can navigate our supply chain (to maintain the quality needed), even in more challenging years (like 24/25) this is possible with good planning. 

The key is always quality-to-price ratio, getting the best quality for your dollar. While coffees in general will be more expensive this year, as mentioned above, the quality of the coffees we're working with and have cupped so far are great. The products remain consistent with profiles and qualities we purchased last year, and we have even found some new names.