The Kenyan coffee harvest is in full swing, and we’ve already started cupping the first offer samples! Below, we’ve outlined the latest updates, insights into this year’s crop quality, market dynamics, and tips for navigating the buying process effectively.
Early harvest indications
The season began earlier than usual, driven by rain patterns and adequate sunshine allowing earlier cherry ripening. Harvesting has been in full swing throughout November, and our initial reports suggest good overall volume projections.
Outturn analyses from suppliers suggest a higher proportion of AA screen sizes this season, with some regions averaging 40% AA beans per outturn. That’s a great sign of quality since bean size and density are linked to ideal ripening conditions. Balanced rainfall, enough sunlight, and proper fertilization have helped coffee plants thrive, resulting in well-developed beans.
Pricing this season is expected to look similar to last year. That said, Kenya’s coffee market operates through an auction system, so prices can still be influenced by external factors like the high C-market. While specialty coffee prices aren’t completely tied to the C-market, it does give us some idea of how supply and demand might shift.
Looking ahead, we don’t expect Kenyan coffee prices to spike as much as other origins. Kenyan coffees are already priced at a premium due to their exceptional quality and limited supply. While there might be slight increases, they’re less likely to see the big jumps that happen with origins that traditionally have lower price points.
Adapting to last year’s auction regulations
Kenya’s coffee purchasing system remains unchanged from last year, with all transactions conducted through the auction. The good news is that milling capacity has improved significantly.
- Increased capacity: More cooperatives now operate their own mills, and existing mills have ramped up their capacity, enabling faster and larger-scale milling operations.
- Improved stability: After significant disruptions in the past, the system has stabilised, and cooperatives and milling operations have adjusted to the new framework. Quality-focused cooperatives remain active, ensuring a steady supply of high-grade coffees for buyers. For smaller-scale buyers like us, access to quality Kenyan coffees remains secure, and milling services are expected to operate more efficiently this year.
Read more about last year’s regulation shifts here.
First expected shipments
We’ve started cupping the first offer samples and locked in our first contracts. The first round of pre-shipment samples should be available by late January/early February onwards. Then, if all goes smoothly, we’re expecting the first arrivals to land in our EU warehouse in Belgium around late March or early April, with more to follow in the next few months.
The situation in the Red Sea continues to be a challenge, sometimes impacting shipping timelines. To handle this, we’re packing all coffees in vacuum-sealed bags to ensure quality is preserved, even if shipping takes a bit longer.
Given the earlier start to the harvest, keep in mind that the season will also end earlier. This means that the earlier you secure your selections, the better. If you know your volume requirements and desired flavor profiles, communicate with your sales rep as soon as possible. Waiting too long may result in missing out on the best lots.
